Latest Results (as of the figures you shared)
- Hichilema (UPND): 1,056,812 votes (54.82%)
- Mundubile (NRPUP): 830,841 votes (43.10%)
- Others: ~40,000 (≈2%)
- Valid votes: 1,927,737
- Rejected: 63,280
- Total votes cast: 1,991,017
- Registered voters in reported areas: 3,588,987
- Turnout: 55.48%
- Lead: Hichilema by 225,971 votes
- Constituencies reported: approximately 105 out of 226
Hichilema has maintained a consistent lead as more results have been released (from early figures of ~22k vs 14k, through 438k vs 351k, 626k vs 506k, up to the current totals).2. Comparison with 2021In 2021 Hichilema defeated Edgar Lungu with 59.02% (2.85 million votes) to 38.71%.Regional pattern remains broadly similar:
- Hichilema dominates Southern, Western and North-Western provinces with very large margins (often 80–95%).
- He remains competitive or leads in Central and parts of Lusaka.
- Mundubile is performing strongly in the former PF heartlands (Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga, Northern) — similar to where Lungu was strongest in 2021.
- The overall national lead is narrower than in 2021, but the geographic divide is recognisable.
3. Probability of a Run-offEstimated probability: 15–20% (Low)
- Hichilema needs only to stay above 50% of the national valid vote.
- He currently sits at 54.8% with a 226,000-vote cushion.
- Roughly 59% of registered voters are still outstanding.
- For a run-off, Mundubile would need to win the remaining valid votes by a large margin (roughly 55–58% of the outstanding vote).
This is possible but unlikely under current trends and 2021 voting patterns. The most probable outcome remains a first-round victory for Hichilema (roughly 80–85% probability).4. Copperbelt SituationYes — Hichilema is currently trailing in Copperbelt.
- At the 49-constituency stage, Mundubile was leading in the province (along with Eastern, Luapula, Northern and Muchinga).
- Specific examples:
– Konkola: Mundubile 9,983 – Hichilema 7,458
– Ndola Central: Mundubile 17,527 – Hichilema 10,774 - The province remains competitive and only partially reported. Some seats have gone to UPND, but the overall tally from announced Copperbelt constituencies favours Mundubile so far.
Overall picture: Hichilema holds a solid national lead driven by massive margins in his traditional strongholds. Mundubile is competitive and leading in several northern and Copperbelt areas, but the scale of Hichilema’s southern advantage makes a first-round win the baseline expectation. The possibility of a run-off now at 35%
