Zambia President, Hakainde Hichilema is projected to win the Zambia 2026 elections after opening a wide margin ahead of his next challenger, Brian Mundubile.
|
Candidate
|
Votes
|
Share of Valid Votes
|
|---|---|---|
|
Hakainde Hichilema (UPND)
|
1,544,140
|
58.86%
|
|
Brian Mundubile (NRPUP)
|
1,030,662
|
39.28%
|
|
Others combined
|
48,838
|
1.86%
|
- Lead: Hichilema by 513,478 votes
- Valid votes: 2,623,640
- Rejected ballots: 77,647
- Total votes cast: 2,701,187
- Registered voters in reported areas: 4,793,053
- Turnout: 56.36%
Hichilema’s share has risen significantly from the previous update (54.82% → 58.86%), and his lead has more than doubled (from ~226,000 to over 513,000).Scale of Remaining Votes
- Total national registered voters: 8,786,300
- Remaining registered: ≈ 3,993,247
- At current ~56.4% turnout → remaining votes cast ≈ 2.25 million
- Estimated remaining valid votes ≈ 2.18 million
Comparison with 2021
Hichilema is now running very close to his 2021 national performance (59.02%).
The regional pattern continues to mirror 2021:
- Massive margins for Hichilema in Southern, Western and North-Western provinces.
- Mundubile competitive/leading in Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga, Northern and (as previously noted) Copperbelt.
Copperbelt
As discussed earlier, Hichilema remains trailing in the Copperbelt seats announced so far. Mundubile has been winning or leading most of the reported constituencies in the province, although the overall national lead continues to grow due to Hichilema’s dominance elsewhere.Probability of a Run-off – UpdatedNow approximately 5–10% (Very Low)Reasons the probability has dropped further:
- Hichilema is already at 58.9% — well above the 50% threshold.
- He has a cushion of more than 513,000 votes.
- To force a run-off, Mundubile would need to win the remaining ~2.18 million valid votes by an extremely large margin (roughly 60%+ for Mundubile while Hichilema falls below 40%). This is highly inconsistent with both the current trend and the 2021 regional voting patterns.
Most likely outcome: Hichilema wins outright in the first round, finishing in the 57–60% range — similar to or slightly below his 2021 result.The race remains geographically divided, with Mundubile performing strongly in the north and Copperbelt, but the scale of Hichilema’s southern advantage and the growing national lead make a first-round victory the clear baseline expectation.
