WATCH LIVE as Gambakwe provides the latest update on the Zambia elections
1. REGISTERED VOTERS
2021:
- 7,023,499 registered
2026:
- 8,786,300 registered — +1,762,801 (+25%) more voters
- 70 new constituencies added: 156 → 226 seats
2. TURNOUT
2021:
- 70.61% turnout
- 4,959,332 total votes cast
2026 Scenario (70% turnout):
- 6,150,410 total votes cast
- +1.19M more votes cast than 2021 even with slightly lower %
3. RESULTS — VOTES FOR HH
2021 Actual:
- HH: 2,852,348 votes — 59.02%
- Lungu: 1,870,780 — 38.71%
- Margin: 981,568
2026 Scenario (HH 60% on 70% turnout):
- HH: 3,690,246 votes — 60%
- Mundubile @ 40%: 2,460,164
- Margin: 1,230,082
- HH gets +837,898 more votes than 2021 (+29%) for same %
4. WINNING THRESHOLD (50%+1)
2021:
- Needed: 2,479,666 votes to win first round
- HH exceeded by 372,682
2026:
- Needed: 3,075,206 votes to win first round (50%+1 of 6.15M)
- At 60%, HH gets 3,690,246 — 614, +40K above threshold, no run-off
- If no one gets >50%, second round within 37 days — Zambia has never had one
5. WHAT 60% MEANS NOW
- 60% in 2026 = 838K more actual people than 59% in 2021, because register is bigger
- Even at lower turnout:
- 65% turnout @ 60% = 3,425,757 votes (still +573K vs 2021)
- 75% turnout @ 60% = 3,953,835 votes
- For Mundubile to force run-off, he needs to hold HH under 50% — i.e. HH under 3.07M votes in 70% turnout scenario
