The following is a summary of the 2026 National Budget speech delivered by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, based on the transcript and additional analysis.

Macroeconomic Overview

  • Theme: “Enhancing Drivers of Economic Growth and Transformation towards Vision 2030.”

  • GDP Growth: Projected at 5% for 2026, slightly down from the 6.6% expected in 2025.

  • Inflation: Annual ZiG inflation is currently 19%, with USD inflation at 13%.

  • Total Budget: Approximately US$9.5 billion (ZiG 290 billion).

  • Debt: Public debt stands at US$23.4 billion (44.7% of GDP).

  • Strategic Focus: The budget launches NDS2 (National Development Strategy 2), which runs from 2026 to 2030.

Key Tax & Revenue Measures

  • VAT Increase: Value Added Tax (VAT) will increase from 14.5% to 15%. This is a significant move to raise revenue but will increase the cost of living.

  • Corporate Tax Currency Split: Companies will now be required to pay Corporate Income Tax in a 50/50 split (50% in ZiG and 50% in USD). This is designed to force demand for the local currency.

  • IMTT (2% Tax) Adjustment: The Intermediated Money Transfer Tax (IMTT) on foreign currency remains the same while transactions in ZIG is reduced to 1.5%.

  • Mining Royalties: Gold royalties will now be linked to the price of gold.

  • Sin Taxes: Increased excise duties on alcohol, cigarettes, and sugary beverages.

  • Presumptive Taxes: New targeted taxes for the informal sector, including hair salons and transport operators.

Major Expenditure Allocations

  • Education: ZiG 47.4 billion (Highest allocation, focused on school construction).

  • Health: ZiG 30.4 billion (Aiming to meet the 15% Abuja Declaration target).

  • Agriculture: ZiG 26.8 billion (Focus on Pfumvudza/Intwasa inputs and irrigation).

  • Security & Policing: ZiG 24.3 billion (Home Affairs).

  • Social Protection: ZiG 12.7 billion (BEAM, grain mitigation).

  • Infrastructure: ZiG 4.6 billion for Transport (roads/airports) and ZiG 1.1 billion for Water.

Gambakwe’s Analysis (Synthesized)

  • Budget Size: The total revenue is very low (approx. US$10 billion), which is smaller than the annual turnover of some individual companies listed on the JSE. This highlights the small size of the formal economy relative to the country’s needs.

  • Political Context: The launch of NDS2 and Vision 2030 aligns with ongoing political discussions regarding the 2028/2030 presidential term extensions.

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