As of mid-July 2025, Mozambique’s natural gas sector is undeniably experiencing a significant resurgence, positioning the nation as a crucial player in the global LNG market. This transformation is deeply intertwined with a complex interplay of improved security, strategic international financing, and ambitious expansion plans.

Here’s a timeline of major developments:

Early 2010s: Gas Boom & Economic Optimism

  • 2010-2013: Major Natural Gas Discoveries: This period saw the discovery of vast offshore natural gas reserves (estimated at over 180 trillion cubic feet, making them among the largest in the world) in the Rovuma Basin, off the northern Cabo Delgado province (Area 1 and Area 4). These discoveries positioned Mozambique as a future global LNG powerhouse and sparked immense economic optimism.
  • February 2010: Heavy rainfall causes widespread floods, affecting approximately 17,000 people in central Mozambique.
  • October 2014: General Elections: Filipe Nyusi (FRELIMO) is elected President, succeeding Armando Guebuza. FRELIMO maintains a majority in Parliament. However, the opposition RENAMO’s share of seats drops, and discontent begins to simmer.
  • 2014-2015: Economic Downturn Begins: Mozambique’s impressive economic growth starts to slow, partly due to declining commodity prices.

Mid-2010s: Hidden Debt Crisis & Renewed Conflict

  • 2015: Renewed RENAMO Insurgency: Friction between the FRELIMO government and RENAMO escalates, leading to renewed, low-level fighting primarily in the northwestern part of the country. Thousands of Mozambicans flee to Malawi.
  • 2016: The Hidden Debt Scandal Uncovered: The Mozambican government admits to having approximately $2 billion in undeclared loans, much of which cannot be accounted for. This “tuna bond scandal” triggers a major economic and financial crisis.
  • 2016: Suspension of Aid: As a direct consequence of the hidden debt, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and other international donors suspend aid to Mozambique, exacerbating economic problems.
  • December 2016: RENAMO Truce: RENAMO announces a unilateral two-month truce, which is extended several times, allowing for renewed peace discussions.
  • October 2017: Beginning of Cabo Delgado Insurgency: A non-state armed group (NSAG), later identified as Ansar al-Sunna (and eventually pledging allegiance to ISIS, becoming Islamic State Mozambique), launches its first attacks on police stations in Mocímboa da Praia, Cabo Delgado province, marking the start of the northern insurgency.

Late 2010s: Natural Disasters, Peace Deal & Escalating Insurgency

  • May 2018: Death of Afonso Dhlakama: RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama dies, creating uncertainty around the ongoing peace talks. Ossufo Momade succeeds him and continues negotiations.
  • March 2019: Cyclone Idai: Cyclone Idai makes landfall, causing catastrophic damage, particularly in the port city of Beira. It kills approximately 600 people and displaces over 162,000.
  • April 2019: Cyclone Kenneth: Just weeks after Idai, Cyclone Kenneth strikes northern Mozambique, killing over 40 people and causing further widespread destruction.
  • June 2019: TotalEnergies FID for Mozambique LNG: TotalEnergies (then Anadarko) reaches Final Investment Decision (FID) for its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in Area 1, signaling massive investment in the gas sector.
  • August 2019: Maputo Accord for Peace and National Reconciliation: President Nyusi and RENAMO leader Ossufo Momade sign landmark peace agreements aimed at ending hostilities and fostering reconciliation, including a demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration (DDR) process for RENAMO fighters.
  • October 2019: General Elections: Filipe Nyusi (FRELIMO) is re-elected President. The elections are largely held in a peaceful environment due to the new peace accord.
  • 2020: Major Escalation of Cabo Delgado Insurgency: The insurgency intensifies significantly, with repeated attacks, including the fall of Mocímboa da Praia to the NSAG for a year. Around 592,000 internal displacements are recorded in this year alone.
  • April 2021: TotalEnergies Declares Force Majeure: Due to the escalating insurgency, particularly an attack on Palma, TotalEnergies declares force majeure on its Mozambique LNG project, halting all construction.

Early 2020s: Security Interventions, Gas Production Begins & Political Turmoil

  • July 2021: Regional Security Interventions: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) deploys the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), and Rwanda also deploys forces, to support Mozambique in combating the insurgency in Cabo Delgado. These interventions begin to improve the security situation.
  • November 2022: Eni’s Coral Sul FLNG Commences Exports: The Italian company Eni begins exporting LNG from its Coral Sul floating LNG facility, marking Mozambique’s entry into the global LNG export market, despite the onshore project delays.
  • Late 2022: Government Economic Reforms: Mozambique’s government announces 20 measures to stimulate growth and improve governance, including corporate income tax reductions and visa exemptions.
  • 2023: Improved Security (Temporary): Relative improvements in security in Cabo Delgado lead to a significant decrease in internal displacements compared to 2022. TotalEnergies begins preparations to lift force majeure.
  • February 2024: Renewed Insurgency Attacks: A resurgence of insurgent attacks, particularly in southern Cabo Delgado, triggers nearly 96,000 new internal displacements, reversing the positive trend of 2023.
  • June 2024: SAMIM Withdrawal Begins: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Angola begin to withdraw their troops serving with SAMIM, raising concerns about the security vacuum.
  • October 2024: Disputed General Elections: General elections are held, with Daniel Chapo (FRELIMO) declared the winner. However, the results are heavily contested by the opposition, particularly Venâncio Mondlane (PODEMOS), leading to widespread protests and violence across the country.
  • December 2024: Mozambique’s highest court confirms FRELIMO’s victory amidst ongoing protests, with official results indicating Daniel Chapo secured 65% of the vote. More than 300 people are reportedly killed in post-election violence by year-end.

Mid-2025: Gas Resurgence & Continuing Challenges

  • January 2025: Daniel Chapo Inauguration: Daniel Chapo is inaugurated as President, but the ceremony is marked by a heavy police presence, limited public participation, and clashes with protesters, reflecting the deep political discontent.
  • March 2025: US Exim Bank Re-approves TotalEnergies Funding: The US Export-Import Bank revalidates its substantial $4.7 billion loan for TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project, a crucial step towards its restart.
  • April 2025: Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG Approved: Mozambique’s Council of Ministers approves Eni’s $7.2 billion Development Plan for the Coral Norte FLNG project, a second floating liquefaction unit.
  • July 2025: TotalEnergies Prepares for Restart: TotalEnergies sends “notice to proceed” letters to contractors and engages subcontractors for the Mozambique LNG project, signaling imminent restart of construction.
  • July 2025: Legal Challenge to Exim Bank Funding: Environmental NGOs file a civil lawsuit in the US seeking to halt Exim Bank’s financing of the TotalEnergies project, citing human rights and environmental concerns.
  • July 2025: Multiple Mining Fatalities in Mazowe: A series of mining accidents in Mazowe District, including a shaft collapse at Jumbo Mine (3 deaths) and an explosion at Kwayedza Investments Mine (2 deaths), highlight the ongoing dangers of unregulated mining.
  • July 2025: Mysterious Car Arson in Bindura: A spree of suspected arson attacks on cars in Bindura causes terror among residents, prompting a police investigation.
  • September 2025 (Projected): Sasol’s Temane Gas-to-Power Project Launch: Sasol is set to launch its $1 billion gas-to-power project, supplying the Central Térmica de Temane power plant and producing LPG for domestic use, further boosting Mozambique’s energy independence.
  • 2029 (Projected): Fivefold Increase in LNG Production: The Mozambican government projects a fivefold increase in LNG production by 2029 (from 3.3 mtpa in 2024 to 20 mtpa), driven by these major projects.

TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG Project: A High-Stakes Restart

The much-anticipated restart of TotalEnergies’ $20 billion Mozambique LNG project at the Afungi Peninsula site is the primary driver of this renewed optimism. Following its suspension in 2021 due to a severe insurgent attack on Palma, the French company is actively moving from planning to on-the-ground mobilization. This involves sending “notice to proceed” letters to contractors like the Portuguese builder Mota-Engil (which holds a $365 million contract for marine facilities alongside Belgium’s Besix Group) and engaging numerous subcontractors. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné has expressed confidence in a “summer 2025” resumption, even committing to LNG production by 2029.

Security and Geopolitical Dynamics: The project’s revival is fundamentally tied to the significant, albeit fragile, improvements in security in northern Cabo Delgado province. Rwandan forces, deployed in 2021, along with Mozambican troops, have been instrumental in pushing back Islamist insurgents. This improved environment is critical for TotalEnergies to lift its “force majeure” declaration, a condition actively pushed by Mozambican President Daniel Chapo. While attacks, such as those in Palma in early 2025, underscore that the threat isn’t entirely eliminated, Pouyanné insists on a “stable operating environment” due to sustained military and diplomatic support.

Financial Landscape and Challenges: The project’s financing, notably $14.9 billion in senior debt, is largely “back on track.” A major breakthrough occurred in March 2025 when the US Export-Import Bank (Exim Bank) revalidated a substantial $4.7 billion loan (some reports indicate $5 billion). However, securing the remaining $7 billion in guarantees from other agencies, particularly from the UK and Dutch export credit agencies, remains a critical hurdle. The UK’s Starmer government is facing legal debates over honoring prior commitments, and the Netherlands is demanding a human rights review before approving funds. This financial uncertainty has potentially pressured TotalEnergies’ share price, though a full resolution by year-end could unlock significant investor confidence.

Project Scope and Market Impact: Once fully operational, the onshore facility will deploy two liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of 13.1 mtpa, capable of expanding to an impressive 43 mtpa. This scale, drawing from the vast 65 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in the Rovuma Basin (specifically Area 1’s Golfinho and Atum fields), is projected to position Mozambique as potentially the world’s second-largest LNG producer. It strategically targets high-demand markets in Asia (Japan, India, China), the Middle East, and Europe, with Europe’s LNG imports rising 20% in 2024 as it seeks to diversify away from Russian gas. This timing provides Mozambique LNG with significant strategic value.

Socio-Economic Contribution and Environmental Concerns: Beyond massive export revenues, the project is anticipated to be a catalyst for significant local development in Cabo Delgado. This includes creating thousands of direct and indirect employment opportunities (with a focus on local hires), facilitating skills development through training programs, and fostering the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that can supply services to the project. The Mozambican government is even moving to pass legislation to “require” megaprojects like this to hire locally.

However, the project is not without its controversies. Environmental NGOs, including Friends of the Earth U.S. and Justiça Ambiental/Friends of the Earth Mozambique, filed a civil lawsuit in the US District Court for the District of Columbia in mid-July 2025, seeking to halt the Exim Bank’s $4.7 billion financing. They argue the approval was unlawful, the project has displaced thousands of residents, has been linked to alleged human rights violations during security operations, and will cause significant environmental damage, labeling it a “climate bomb” due to its estimated 10 million tons of annual CO2 emissions. They also claim the project exacerbates local inequalities, potentially contributing to the insurgency. If the U.S. court rules in their favor, it could delay the project’s resumption, as Exim Bank’s contribution accounts for roughly 25% of the total investment.

Broader Sector Expansion: Floating LNG and Domestic Gas Monetization

In parallel with TotalEnergies’ onshore efforts, Mozambique’s gas sector is diversifying its growth:

  • Eni’s Pioneering Coral Sul FLNG: The Italian company Eni has already established Mozambique as an LNG exporter. Its Coral Sul floating LNG facility, the first FLNG unit dedicated to the African continent and the third of its kind globally, has been successfully exporting LNG since November 2022. It recently celebrated its 100th cargo shipment in April 2025, demonstrating the viability of deepwater floating production. The Coral Sul project is estimated to yield $16 billion to the Mozambican state over 30 years.
  • Coral Norte FLNG Expansion: Building on this success, Mozambique’s Council of Ministers approved Eni’s $7.2 billion Development Plan for the Coral Norte FLNG Project in April 2025. This second floating liquefaction unit, expected to be an exact replica of Coral Sul (with a capacity of 3.55 mtpa), will explore gas resources from the Coral Eocene 441 deposit in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin. Eni is nearing a Final Investment Decision (FID) for Coral Norte, with Samsung Heavy Industries reportedly close to securing a nearly $2.5 billion contract to build the new unit. First LNG production from Coral Norte is slated for Q2 2028.
  • Sasol’s Temane Gas-to-Power and LPG Project: South African energy giant Sasol is set to launch its $1 billion gas-to-power project in September 2025. This project will supply natural gas from the Inhassoro, Temane, and Pande gas fields (part of a Production Sharing Agreement – PSA) to the 450-megawatt Central Térmica de Temane (CTT) power plant, which is in its final construction phase. This will significantly boost Mozambique’s domestic power grid. Crucially, the project will also produce 30,000 tonnes per year of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domestic use, with production of cooking gas expected to begin in early 2026. This initiative is a major step towards reducing Mozambique’s reliance on imported fuels and enhancing energy security for its citizens, with an overall aim to reduce hydrocarbon imports while increasing energy independence. The project holds strategic significance for South Africa as well, offering diversified regional gas sources to address its chronic power supply instability.

Ambitious Production Forecasts:

The Mozambican government’s Five-Year Program (PQG) 2025-2029 outlines an ambitious target: a fivefold increase in LNG production by 2029, from an estimated 3.3 mtpa in 2024 to a projected 20 mtpa. This growth is contingent not only on TotalEnergies’ and Eni’s projects but also on the potential final investment decision for ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project, also in Area 4, which is expected to have a capacity of 18 mtpa and could potentially move forward in 2026. The government also plans to expand hydrocarbon exploration contracts from seven to 16 by 2029. These combined efforts are expected to significantly boost Mozambique’s GDP per capita from $662 to $951 by 2029, primarily driven by LNG exports and foreign capital inflow into the energy sector.

This comprehensive array of projects, coupled with the critical improvements in security and the ongoing resolution of financial hurdles, solidifies Mozambique’s emergence as a transformative force in Southern Africa’s energy landscape and a significant new player in global LNG markets.

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