BREAKDOWN OF RBZ SNAPSHOTS (Q2 2025 & Q2 2026)
1. MONEY MARKET
This covers monetary policy tools, interest rates, banking sector liquidity, credit growth, and currency operations.
A. Monetary Policy Rates (As at 30 June 2026)
| Instrument | Rate (p.a.) | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Policy Rate | 30% | ↓ from 35% |
| ZiGDTDF – 30-day | 8% | New instrument |
| ZiGDTDF – 90-day | 11% | New instrument |
| TFF Interest Rate | 15% | ↓ from 20% |
| Minimum Savings Deposit (ZiG) | 5% | Unchanged |
| Minimum Savings Deposit (US$) | 2.5% | Unchanged |
| Minimum Time Deposit (ZiG) | 7.5% | Unchanged |
| Minimum Time Deposit (US$) | 4% | Unchanged |
B. Bank Policy Rate Rationale (Q2 2026)
-
Reduced from 35% to 30% in June 2026
-
Reason: “Structural shift in inflation dynamics from high to low and stable levels”
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Not an easing of monetary policy — a “recalibration”
-
TFF rate reduced from 20% to 15%, with on-lending cap at 25%
C. ZiG Denominated Term Deposit Facility (ZiGDTDF)
| Tenor | Issued Rate | Bills | Nominal (ZiG) | % of Total | Interest Cost (ZiG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day | 8.00% | 2 | 110,000,000 | 23.6% | 723,288 |
| 90-day | 10.00% | 1 | 20,000,000 | 4.3% | 493,151 |
| 90-day | 11.00% | 8 | 306,600,000 | 65.7% | 8,316,000 |
| 90-day | 11.50% | 1 | 30,000,000 | 6.4% | 850,685 |
| TOTAL | 12 | 466,600,000 | 100% | 10,383,123 |
Features:
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Offered to: Banks, Building Societies, Deposit-taking MFIs, POSB, Corporates, Individuals
-
Tradable, prescribed asset status, liquid asset status
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Acceptable as collateral for accommodation
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Redeemable/payable at RBZ on maturity
-
Part of Open Market Operations (OMO)
D. Reserve Money & Money Supply
| Indicator | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Money (ZiG M) | 4,658 | 6,607 | ↑ 42% |
| Reserve Money Cover (ZiG M) | 4,658 | 6,607 | ↑ 42% |
| Month-on-Month M3 Growth (Jan-May 2026) | — | 6.7% | New data |
| Market Position + NNCDs (ZiG M) | 1,877 | 6,397 | ↑ 241% |
| Reserve Money Target vs Actual (Jun 2026) | — | Target: ZiG 7.3B Actual: ZiG 6.6B |
Under target |
E. Banking Sector Credit Growth
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZiG Loan Growth (Weekly Avg) | 0.40% | 1.13% | ↑ 183% |
| FX Loan Growth (Weekly Avg) | 0.64% | 1.27% | ↑ 98% |
| ZiG Loan Share (Dec 2025) | 15.55% | Not specified | N/A |
| ZiG Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (Dec 2025) | 38% | Not specified | N/A |
F. ZiG Currency in Circulation (Q2 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ZiG Currency in Circulation | ZiG 568 million |
| As % of ZiG Bank Deposits | 2.11% |
G. Lending to Government
| Period | Status |
|---|---|
| 2025 (Full Year) | Nil |
| Q2 2026 | Nil |
2. MACROECONOMIC
This covers inflation, exchange rates, foreign reserves, foreign currency receipts/payments, current account, trade, and overall economic stability.
A. Inflation
| Indicator | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual ZiG Inflation | 92.5% | 4.7% | ↓ 87.8 pp |
| Month-on-Month ZiG Inflation | 0.28% | 0.6% | ↑ 0.32 pp |
| Average MoM Inflation (Jan-Jun 2026) | — | 0.47% | New data |
2025 Disinflation Path:
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Peak: 95.8% (July 2025)
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December 2025: 15.0% (vs target of 30%)
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Q1 2026 projected: Single-digit
2026 Inflation Performance:
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Remained below 5% since January 2026
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Despite global oil price shock from Middle East conflict
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Domestic fuel prices rose >30%
-
Without anchored expectations, inflation could have approached 8%
B. Exchange Rate
| Metric | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBWS Rate (ZiG/US$) | 26.9457 | 26.7698 | ↓ 0.65% |
| Average Rate (Q2 2026) | — | ZiG 26.05 | New data |
| Closing Rate (Q2 2026) | — | ZiG 26.77 | New data |
| Parallel Market Premium | <20% | <20% | Stable |
| RBZ Total Intervention (since Apr 2024) | US$1.34B | US$2.1B | ↑ 56.7% |
REER & NEER Developments:
-
REER remained below benchmark level
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Supported external price competitiveness
-
Broadly consistent with macroeconomic fundamentals
C. Foreign Reserves
| Indicator | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Reserves (USD M) | 731 | 1,603 | ↑ 119% |
| Reserve Money Cover | ~6x | ~6x | Stable |
| ZiG Deposits Cover | ~1.5x | ~1.5x | Stable |
| Import Cover (months) | ~1.1 | 1.6 | ↑ 0.5 |
| Cash & Nostro (USD M) | 309 | 944 | ↑ 206% |
| Gold Holdings (Kgs) | 3,439 | 4,525 | ↑ 31.6% |
| Gold Holdings Value (USD M) | 361 | 586 | ↑ 62.3% |
Reserve Composition (Jun 2026):
| Component | Value (USD M) |
|---|---|
| Cash & Nostro | 944 |
| Gold Holdings | 586 |
| Total Reserve Cover | 1,603 |
ZiG Reserve Cover (Jun 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Reserve Money Cover | ~6 times |
| ZiG Deposits Cover | ~1.5 times |
D. Foreign Currency Receipts & Payments
| Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Inflows (USD B) | 7.25 | 10.72 | ↑ 47.9% |
| Total Payments (USD B) | ~5.7 | 7.3 | ↑ 28.1% |
| Surplus (USD B) | ~1.55 | 3.42 | ↑ 120% |
| Monthly Average Surplus (USD M) | ~258 | 569 | ↑ 120% |
| Average Trade Balance (USD M) | Not specified | -98.3 | New data |
Forex Receipts Composition (2025):
| Source | % of Total |
|---|---|
| Export Earnings | 59.7% |
| Loan Proceeds | 14.8% |
| Diaspora Remittances | 13.5% |
2026 Outlook:
-
Current account surplus projected >US$2.5 billion
-
Supported by improved merchandise exports
-
Remittances expected to grow
E. Gold Delivery Analysis
| Period | Monthly Accumulation (Avg) |
|---|---|
| Dec 2024 – Mar 2025 | ~51 kg/month |
| Mar 2025 – Jun 2025 | ~220 kg/month |
| Jun 2025 – Dec 2025 | ~98 kg/month |
| Dec 2025 – Jun 2026 | ~82 kg/month |
Gold Holdings Progression:
| Date | Kgs | Value (USD M) | Implied Price/kg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-24 | 1,500 | 113 | ~75,333 |
| Jun-25 | 3,439 | 361 | ~104,971 |
| Jun-26 | 4,525 | 586 | ~129,503 |
F. Uncovered Foreign Currency Demand
| Date | Uncovered Demand (USD M) |
|---|---|
| Sep-24 | 11.68 |
| Dec-24 | 12.27 |
| Mar-25 | 14.84 |
| Jun-25 | 17.52 |
| Sep-25 | 10.22 |
| Dec-25 | 29.74 |
| Mar-26 | 36.0 (from external context) |
| Apr-26 | 17.2 (from external context) |
Note: The Q2 2026 Snapshot does not explicitly report the Uncovered Demand figure for June 2026. The March 2026 figure (US$36M) is from external context, not directly in the snapshot.
G. Current Account & Trade
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Current Account Surplus | >US$1B (proj.) | >US$2.5B (proj.) |
| Trade Balance (Oct 2025) | US$28.7M | — |
| Trade Balance (Nov 2025) | US$90.4M | — |
| Trade Balance (Jan-May 2026 avg) | — | -US$98.3M |
3. REAL ECONOMY
This covers GDP growth, sectoral performance, employment/income indicators, and economic outlook.
A. GDP Growth
| Period | Growth Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (Full Year) | 6.6% | Estimated |
| 2026 (Full Year) | 5% | Envisaged Projection |
| 2026 (H1 Update) | On track for 5% | “Well on course” |
What the Reports Say:
“The prevailing macroeconomic stability during 2025 has been critical in supporting the robust growth estimated at 6.6%.”
— Q4 2025 Snapshot, Page 13
“In 2026, monetary and financial conditions will be calibrated to underpin the envisaged growth of upwards of 5%.”
— Q4 2025 Snapshot, Page 13
“Performance of the economy during the first half shows that the economy is well on course to achieve the envisaged 5% growth, driven by strong commodity prices, particularly for gold and PGMs, underpinning growth in mining and mineral exports.”
— Q2 2026 Snapshot, Page 15
B. Sectoral Drivers (2026)
The only sector explicitly mentioned as driving growth:
-
Mining and Mineral Exports (driven by strong gold and PGM prices)
No other sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services, etc.) are quantified or discussed in the GDP context.
C. Economic Outlook (Q2 2026)
Key Projections:
| Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 5% (on track) |
| Annual Inflation | Remain in single digits |
| Month-on-Month Inflation | Remain below 1% |
| Current Account Surplus | >US$2.5 billion |
| Import Cover | 1.7-2 months by end 2026 |
| Financial Sector | Continued resilience |
| Oil Prices | Expected to moderate with easing Middle East tensions |
RBZ Commitment:
“The Reserve Bank is strongly committed to continue to ‘walk the talk’ and ‘stay the course’ through prudent monetary policy measures supported by deliberate efforts to promote the demand for the local currency.”
— Q2 2026 Snapshot, Page 15
D. Missing Real Economy Data
The reports do not provide:
| Missing Element |
|---|
| Nominal GDP (US$ value) |
| Sectoral growth rates (manufacturing, agriculture, services) |
| Sectoral contributions to GDP |
| Employment data |
| Household income/wages |
| Investment data |
| Consumption data |
| Government spending data |
| Net exports contribution |
| GDP per capita |
| Poverty/inequality metrics |
| Source attribution for GDP data |
Summary: What the Reports Cover vs. What They Miss
| Category | Covered? | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Money Market | ✅ Comprehensive | Policy rates, reserves, credit, liquidity, new instruments |
| Macroeconomic | ✅ Comprehensive | Inflation, exchange rates, reserves, forex flows, current account |
| Real Economy | ⚠️ Minimal | Only GDP growth estimates (6.6%, 5%) — no sectoral breakdowns or supporting data |
Final Observation
The reports are extremely detailed on:
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Monetary policy tools and rates
-
Banking sector liquidity and credit
-
Inflation dynamics
-
Exchange rate stability
-
Foreign reserve accumulation
-
Foreign currency receipts/payments
But they are virtually silent on:
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The structure of the real economy
-
Sectoral performance (beyond a passing mention of mining)
-
Employment, wages, or household welfare
-
Investment or consumption patterns
-
The methodological basis for GDP figures
This creates a picture where financial stability is meticulously documented, but the real economy—the people and businesses that actually produce goods and services—remains largely opaque.
