On October 11, 2025, the situation in Madagascar reached a breaking point when a faction of the army, specifically soldiers from the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnels et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT) unit, mutinied and joined protesters in Antananarivo, the capital.
Colonel Michael Randrianirina, also known as Colonel Mickaël, a former commander of an infantry battalion in Toliara (southern Madagascar), emerged as a key military dissident. He led the mutiny announcement via video, declaring the end of President Andry Rajoelina’s regime. In the statement, he called for military disobedience of “illegal” orders and imposed a nationwide curfew. Colonel Randrianirina positioned himself as interim leader, promising dialogue with protesters, and enjoys broad support within the army.
Multiple sources indicate that President Rajoelina fled the capital’s presidential palace as soldiers advanced, seeking refuge at the French embassy in Antananarivo, leveraging his French nationality since 2014. His private jet was seen landing in Mahajanga, northern Madagascar, fueling speculation that he may have left the country entirely. Social media videos and eyewitness accounts describe him abandoning the palace amid the unrest.
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Late September 2025: Protests erupted across Madagascar, especially in Antananarivo, triggered by frequent water and power outages. The protests quickly became widespread, targeting government officials and infrastructure, with some areas experiencing looting and violence. By September 25, thousands of young people attempted to assemble at Ambohijatovo, but were blocked and dispersed by police using tear gas and rubber bullets.
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September 26: President Andry Rajoelina dismissed his energy minister amid the protests.
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September 29: Rajoelina dissolved the government led by Prime Minister Christian Ntsay in response to the unrest, which had resulted in 22 deaths according to the United Nations.
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October 6: President Rajoelina appointed military general Ruphin Zafisambo as the new Prime Minister, aiming to defuse tensions.
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Early October: Protests continued with hundreds to thousands of demonstrators facing police crackdowns involving tear gas, rubber bullets, and stun grenades. Protesters rejected dialogue offers from Rajoelina, demanding his resignation.
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October 8: Rajoelina announced plans for a “national dialogue” with various groups, but protests persisted and were described by Rajoelina as a coup attempt.
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October 9: Clashes between protesters and police escalated with live ammunition used. Youth protesters remained resolute in demanding Rajoelina step down.
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October 11: The tipping point occurred when a faction of the Malagasy army, the elite CAPSAT unit, mutinied and joined the protesters in Antananarivo. They refused orders to repress crowds, instead escorting demonstrators into symbolic areas like May 13 Square. Mutineers faced little resistance as they took control of key central locations. President Rajoelina fled the capital palace and is believed to have sought refuge at the French embassy or left the country via a private jet to Mahajanga. Colonel Michael Randrianirina emerged as leader of the mutiny, declared the end of Rajoelina’s regime, imposed a curfew, and called for military disobedience to illegal orders, promising dialogue with protesters.
The CAPSAT unit, which previously supported Rajoelina’s 2009 coup, defied orders to repress crowds. Instead, they escorted demonstrators into symbolic locations such as May 13 Square, encountering minimal resistance and effectively taking control of key central areas.
Colonel Randrianirina’s video statement, circulated widely on social media, showed him surrounded by senior officers as he declared the regime over. He urged the military to disobey “illegal” orders and established a nationwide curfew to maintain order during the transition. He framed the military action as support for the people’s demands and a response to repression rather than a power grab.
Reports of Rajoelina’s fate remain conflicting. While some indicate he fled via a private jet to Mahajanga, others claim he remains in Antananarivo, barricaded with loyal troops, attempting to rally supporters for a counteroffensive. Gunfire was reported in the capital, but the mutineers faced little resistance.
The rapid collapse of Rajoelina’s regime on October 11 marks a full military coup following weeks of escalating protests. The army has declared his rule ended and has initiated a transition. However, details about Rajoelina’s current status remain unverified amid the chaotic and fast-moving situation.
