WATCH LIVE as Gambakwe Media looks at the difficult situation that South Africa finds itself in Mozambique.

After deploying soldiers in Mozambique, South Africa will certainly have to keep a military presence in the massive country for at least the next 10 years to come.

Complications

Complications have arisen paralysing the SADC region from responding to the crisis in Mozambique. According to the NewsHawks, Mozambique PRESIDENT, Phillipe Nyusi is refusing a regional response, preferring intervention by Zimbabwe, USA, Tanzania and EU.

Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi met with Zimbabwe President, ED Mnangagwa last week to discuss the issue. Botswana and Zimbabwe want to intervene through SADC.

Mnangagwa is the current SADC Troika Chair, while Ramaphosa is the incoming Chair.

SADC has met four times on the crisis without getting to an agreement (19 May 2020 in Harare ,  Virtual Meeting on August 17, 27 November 2020 in Botswana, 14 December 2020 in Mozambique. They met again this weekend.

Nyusi is concerned about the Sovereignity of Mozambique and is now seen as a stumbling block.

Nyusi is relying on retired Colonel Lionel Dyck. Dyck ‘s contract expired yesterday (Tuesday 6 April 2021).

Strategy

The biggest problem for South Africa is the lack of a long term strategy for Mozambique.

While the biggest Beneficiaries in Mozambique are private energy companies such as Total, Chevron, Exxon, Mitsui, Petronas and CNPC, the security threats for South Africa are high as it shares a long birder with Mozambique.

South Africa can also lose out as the region begins to be perceived as high risk, resulting in lower FDI.

SA Projects In Mozambique 

– Sasol has invested R$1 Billion in a 865km gas pipeline from Southern Mozambique to Secunda.

– Sasol has recently announced a R11 Billion investment in the Southern gas fields.

– South African Banks have pumped Billions into the projects.

– South African Banks have invested almost R10 Billion in the Cabo Del Gado projects.

Who are the terrorists in Mozambique? 

1. The Insurgents in Mozambique has no clear leader. The terrorists fighting in Mozambique have not made any statements or made any attempt to negotiate.

2. The terrorists in Mozambique have been attacking civilians. They appear from nowhere and soon after disappear before the military can respond.

3. The Ansar Al-Sunna Islamic movement (Al Shabaab), have been active in Cabo Del Gado.

What is the state of security In Mozambique 

– The Mozambique government lacks control over its borders and vast areas of the countries.

– Young disgruntled Mozambicans can easily be recruited by the terrorists due to lack of development in the affected area.

What will South Africa Do? 

1. South Africa will be forced to formulate a strategy in Mozambique the hard way. They will go in and out a number of times and sil eventually have to either keep a permanent presence or pull out altogether.

2. The Rebels are likely to launch an attack on soft targets inside South Africa as a warning and to strike fear among ordinary South Africans.

3. The South Africans have no choice but to go into Mozambique permantly.

Please watch the video above this post for more details.