The Crisis in Zimbabwe does not involve everyone. The people who are quarreling are are Mnangagwa, Chiwenga, Moyo, Sibanda, Edzai Chimwonyo and Chamisa and the people.
The over-arching argument in Moyo’ s presentation was that the Presidential votes of MDC Alliance were stolen in 2018 and the Parliamentary votes were stolen in 2020 and the UN need to step in because the constitution has been suspended.
The ZDF, Concourt, ZEC and the Supreme court have been used by Mnangagwa to make Zimbabwe a De-Facto Military State.
Centres Of Power In Zimbabwe
1. Mnangagwa controls Zimbabwe through general Thomas Moyo of MI,
Owen Muda Ncube, Matanga and Mutamba of ZRP and Forex through Kuda Tagweirei and Mthuli Ncube.
2. General Chiwenga has influence in ZDF through General Chimwonyo but has lost influence because he was out of Zimbabwe for a long time. Obert Mpofu, Patrick Chinamansa, Tendai Savanhu, Jim Kunaka, Godfrey Tsenengamu and Clevaria Chizema are linked to General Chiwenga.
3. General S.B Moyo has his own Presidential ambitions and was responsible for determining the 2018 Presidential elections through AFRICOM. He is the De-facto Prime Minister of the Army.
4. General Valerio Sibanda is the ZDF Commander but has little influence because of his ZAPU background and has little connections in ZANU-PF.
5.. Junior Soldiers have a different views from that of the Generals.
6. Nelson Chamisa who won the Presidential elections in 2018
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Mnangagwa rmanages to maintain the status quo which is an Authoritarian order.
Scenario 2 – Chiwenga ‘s people want to see a GNU with Chamisa similar to 2008 will require a constitutional arrangement.
Scenario 3 – S.B Moyo wants an NTA – Mix of interests with no roots in ZANU-PF and MDC.
Scenario 4 – Military Transition led by disgruntled junior soldiers – which is becoming increasingly likely.
Scenario 5 – A spontaneous revolution by the public which has a high likelihood of violence and has no clear leadership.
Scenario 6 – Restoration of constitutionalism – Nelson Chamisa who won the election in 2018 is restored to his position.
Scenario 7 – A Negotiated Settlement between the parties that are quarelling
Negotiated Settlement
It is not possible to end the Zimbabwe crisis without de-militarising the state. Moyo says the Army is the problem. However, there is no need to extend a political role to the military. The Military should not be begged to return to the Barracks as it is a constitutional requirement.
1. A negotiated settlement should be between ZANU-PF, ZDF and the MDC-Alliance
2. The purpose of the negotiation will be the de-militarisation of state institutions
3. There is no on in Zimbabwe that can mediate the dispute
4. AU, SADC and South Africa is compromised and can not mediate the dispute
5. The only possible mediator is the United Nations
6. The NTA lacks political representation and will not be supported by politicians
Possible Mediator
Paul Kagame
Sticking Points
1. Generals are concerned about security issues which need to be negotiated
2. What China or other foreign powers think do not matter
3. Not All SADC countries accept that there is a crisis in Zimbabwe
Why United Nations Should Be Involved in Zimbabwe
1. Chiwenga, Moyo are from the Military
2. Mnangagwa has formed a Ferret team that is abducting citizens
3. Zimbabwe is a threat to regional stability
4. Mnangagwa will accept a Fact Finding Mission
What led to the Coup
1. Mnangagwa and Chiwenga made a pact in 2008 that led to the Coup in 2017
2. Mugabe made the mistake of making Mnangagwa a Defence Minister
Conclusion
1. Jonathan Moyo does not take responsibility for his part during Mugabe’s days
2. The UN is unlikely to intervene in Zimbabwe before there is Military action
3. Moyo ignores POLAD which is already on the table
Other Panelists
1. AU and SADC are key in the dispute
2. There have alread been two special rappateurs from the United Nations
3. Once there was a GNU in 2009, MDC became silent about the issues
