Zimbabwe is likely to have a new government of national unity within the next 6 months comprising ZANU PF and the main opposition party the MDC Alliance.
There is also likely to be major changes such as:
– suspension of elections for 7 years
– appointment of a leader of the opposition
– ammendment of the constitution to allow for a third opposition VP or Prime Minister
A key indicator of a move towards a GNU has been the resumption of POLAD meetings from last Thursday
Key events that have taken place within the past 6 months have cleared the way for a GNU namely:
1. Nelson Chamisa has been replaced with Thokozani Khuphe as leader at the MDC Alliance
2. Chamisa has lost control of all the MPs , Senators and councillors of the MDC
3. Thokozani Khuphe, with the help of Douglas Mwonzora, Morgan Komichi and Elias Mudzuri has taken control of Harvest House
It is difficult to see how Nelson Chamisa can recover from his current position as the courts have made it clear that they recognize the Supreme Court ruling.
Fadzayi Mahere said this afternoon that the MDC Alliance will be taking a political approach and not a legal position on the matter.
Chamisa also wrote on his Facebook and Twitter accounts that the takeover of harvest house is a line in the sand.
This leaves four options for Chamisa at this point:
1. Mass Action – This would mean calling for demonstrations in Harare
2. Dialogue – This will mean going into POLAD as Mnangagwa has said he will not negotiate with Chamisa outside POLAD.
3. Forming a new political party and hoping that they can win future elections
4. Going to the extra ordinary congress and fighting it out with Khuphe for the MDC T Presidency
What could go wrong
1. There is a big possibility of a fraud case being brought up against Chamisa and Hwende regarding funds transferred to Namibia. The audit will now be in the hands of the Khuphe Team and the report will likely be made public. This is unfortunately the first audit of the books of the MDC since the party was formed.
2. The current coronavirus lockdown will work against Nekson Chamisa and his faction as they will struggle to organize new offices and structures
3. Douglas Mwonzora could organize a well attended Extraordinary congress that could be credible in the eyes of many grassroots supporters leaving the party further divided.
Zimbabwe is now in a transitional period. We are likely to see another leadership change within a short space of time and even more significant events before the end of this year.