The MDC now has four distinct Factions after the Supreme Court ruling. This is a crisis as non of the four factions wants to talk to the other.
Each Faction has its own interests, however, all the factions realize that they need Chamisa.
1. The Chamisa Faction
This Faction is made up of Chamisa and his closest confidents from the UZ days. There are also a number of UK and South Africa based Zimbabweans in this group that benefited from parliamentary and council seats during the 2018 harmonized elections.
This group wants Chamisa to win in 2023 as they stand to benefit from his Presidency. Most of them believe that the come home and become government ministers.
This group can not be moved from Chamisa no matter what happens. If Chamisa was to lose out of the MDC, they would just continue with their lives in their foreign bases.
This group would be saying to Chamisa, don’t negotiate with Khuphe.
These are mostly mercenaries and fortune hunters.
2. The Khuphe Faction
This group is made up of Khuphe and the original group that broke away with her.
This group is made up of mostly Ndebele Speaking, Matabeleland and SA Based Zimbabweans.
This Faction genuinely feels that they were Robbed.
This Faction is treated with suspicion by all other Faction due to their involvement with POLAD.
The Supreme Court judgement is unlikely to help this Faction as the are being opposed from all other factions.
3. The Outsiders Faction – Biti/Ncube/Job Sikhala
This is the most cunning Faction.
This Faction has the most to lose, however, they are not popular with the rank and file of the MDC.
This Faction is made up of people who were appointed by Chamisa into MDC structures when they did not qualify to be in MDC. This is where Biti and Ncube are.
This Faction has previous disagreements with the Khuphe Faction and the two can never mix.
This faction believe that Chamisa is weak and indecisive and have deployed their foot soldiers in the youth league to go on a vicious public campaign against the other factions.
This Faction is likely to lose the most as people in the Chamisa Faction Secretly hate them!
There will be a push to re-look at the three vice Presidents of the MDC and this Faction has lost their power, they just don’t know it.
4. Mwonzora Faction
This is the most powerful and Strategic Faction. This Faction believes that Chamisa has sold the party to outsiders.
This Faction is made up of the original leadership of the MDC.
Most of these people are career politicians. They know the MDC History and its foundation.
They hate all the other factions and have support in the structures.
This Faction does not want to see Khuphe back in the MDC.
Since the Supreme Court said Khuphe should hold the Extraordinary Congress in 3 months, their plan is to outsmart her.
They want to make sure she fails to hold the extra ordinary congress on three months.
They have started working already and will make sure that all the other factions look bad.
However they need Chamisa but are likely to reveal something big and game changing before congress.
What is the cause of this situation
– The MDC lacks a system for grooming leaders. It’s not possible to rise to the top if you are not in the Faction system.
– The MDC lacks strong structures. Weak structures were used by subsequent leaders to control the party totally. This is the situation in most political parties in Zimbabwe. For example, no opposition party on Zimbabwe except the MDC – T has a vice President!
Behind the Scenes
Non of the factions is talking to the other. Everything is on auto pilot. This is a dangerous situation because it means the opposition party will not win in 2023.
What is needed now.
All the four Factions need a leader. Chamisa is the natural leader in the MDC. He needs to unite these four Factions and make sure that all of them is channel their energy towards the 2023 elections.
The first step is for Chamisa to call for unity. He needs to make that public statement.
However, the problems in the MDC can not be fixed without respecting the MDC Constitution and without complying with the Supreme Court Judgement.
This requires more work and will also require a mediator to help the different factions to come to an agreement.
Everyone should be willing to give and take!